People love to predict the future; people are not very good at predicting the future.
A prediction is a statement about an uncertain event. Outside the context of science, the term is usually used to refer to an informed guess or opinion, often, but not always, based on experience or knowledge.
Scientific hypothesis and prediction is usually more rigorous but predictions in other areas, for example finance, business, sports and politics are notoriously inaccurate and often completely and hilariously wrong.
With evolving technology being hard to understand, making predictions about future trends in the tech business is especially risky.
1883: “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society.
1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” The President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
1943: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM.
1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox Studio executive.
1977: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corp in a speech to the World Future Society.
1996: “Apple is a chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future.” Time Magazine.
2004: “Two years from now, spam will be solved.” Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum.
2006: “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never’.” David Pogue, New York Times journalist.
2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
June 2016